Having been disappointed by the SP, the BSP and the Congress alike, the State is looking to the BJP for succour
The political atmosphere in Uttar Pradesh is reminiscent of the 1990s. That was the time when the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation was at its peak. That was the time when Hindutva had obliterated the caste lines. No one was Dalit, Ahir, Thakur, Brahmin or Bania — everyone was Hindu and they proudly carried that tag on their sleeves. Almost two decades later, Uttar Pradesh is again witnessing a situation where people are ready to shed their caste identities. They are ready to come under the flag unfurled by BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. This is the emergence of new era when Hindutva has given way to ‘Moditva’ in Uttar Pradesh.
This was witnessed in Gorakhpur — one of the most impoverished regions of Uttar Pradesh — where Mr Modi addressed his sixth rally in the State. People of all castes and creeds came in hordes to listen to him. It was not a hired crowd. It was the multitudes of inquisitive people who wanted to listen to Mr Modi. They were there to know about the post-election roadmap he had charted out for the nation. They were not carrying the bundle of caste on their heads — they were just common men who craving for development in eastern Uttar Pradesh where children still die of curable disease like encephalitis.
The impact of Mr Modi is so intense on the psyche of the Samajwadi Party leadership in general and Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav in particular that it has campaigned on communal lines. In his every rally and closed-door meetings with party workers Mr Yadav talks only about Mr Modi. He knows that Mr Modi has made an impact in Uttar Pradesh, and within no time the BJP, which was struggling to retain its fourth position in the political hierarchy, has become the ‘number one ki party' in Uttar Pradesh. The party, about which nobody wanted to talk, has all of a sudden became the eyesore for the Opposition. This was proved in a series of pre-poll surveys carried by television news channels that have predicted that the BJP will get between 30 and 49 seats if elections were held today. At present, the BJP has 10 seats in the lok Sabha from the State. If the predictions are right, the increase in BJP's seats will be between three and five times.
What one television channel claimed in its survey is astonishing. It said that the party's share will be 38 per cent with the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party getting 17 per cent vote share each. In the 2009 lok Sabha election, the vote share of the BJP was 11 per cent. The 38 per cent vote share in this four-cornered contest — with the Samajwadi Party, the Congress and the BSP also in fray (leaving aside small parties like the Rashtriya lok Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party) — shows that the BJP is expected to get votes from all sections of the society. The Dalits, who vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Backward classes (minus the Yadavs) too will vote for Mr Modi in the lok Sabha election. The OBCs have also shown their inclination to join the BJP bandwagon.
It is not difficult to apprehend why this trend is visible in Uttar Pradesh. The State needs a heavy dose of development. The earlier regime brought in an era of corruption and commission. Development was limited to the construction of parks and memorials to Dalit icons. The then Chief Minister, Ms Mayawati, remained closeted with her close coterie, de-linking herself from the common man.
In the 2012 Assembly election, the frustrated people voted Ms Mayawati out and gave the Samajwadi Party a heavy mandate with the belief that an educated young leader like Mr Akhilesh Yadav would steer the State out of its prevailing ills. His two-year-old rule has belied all the hopes of the people. Hooligans are back on the streets. There is deterioration in the law and order situation. The State witnessed 36 communal riots with the violence in Muzaffarnagar being the worst — over 60 people lost their lives and more than 50,000 were rendered homeless.
Then there is the misrule of the Congress-led UPA Government. Inflation, corruption and misgovernance have taken the country to a new low. There is an increase in terror attacks in many parts of India, and the rupee has touched a new low. The 10 year rule of the UPA Government has increased miseries of the common man. The exasperated people are now looking for change. This was reflected in the last four Assembly elections where the Congress has been practically decimated.
In these dark clouds, Mr Modi has emerged as the silver lining. People see a hope of development in him. Because of his track record, people feel that he is a leader who has the vision to take the country to a new high. Through the lok Sabha election, the people will teach all political parties a lesson. Their appreciation for Mr Modi increases with each passing day and this is proven in the large crowds that come in for all his rallies.
