Time will tell whether the creation of a Telangana State will benefit the people or allow for a return of the ultra-left

Now that the Telangana Bill is awaiting the President’s nod, what would be its political and electoral repercussions in Andhra PradeshIJ Will the Congress’s calculations go awry if the Telangana Rashtra Samithi does not play alongIJ Will the TRS opt for only a poll allianceIJ

Though Parliament has passed the Bill, these issues will continue to haunt the Congress and other parties in the State until the dust settles down. The Centre has many challenges in dealing with it as several things including the quantum of special status to the Seemandhra region remains to be settled. This is going to be one of the major challenges as the time is short and elections to the lok Sabha and State Assembly are looming large. The Planning Commission and the Centre will have to find the right kind of financial package for Seemandhra and help the State in reconciling to the new status.

The biggest problem is how to fill the revenue loss suffered by the Seemandhra region, estimated between Rs 9000 and Rs 15,000 crore. Although it was thought that the gap could be filled by revenue sharing from Hyderabad between the two States, this was given up because experts had pointed out the revenue from one State cannot be shared with another.

The political repercussions are more serious for the Congress, which was hoping to reap benefits from the bifurcation while the TRS is in a win-win situation. The earlier understanding with the TRS, which was spearheading for a separate Telangana, was that the regional outfit would merge with the Congress after the new State was created. The Congress was ready to project TRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao as the party’s chief ministerial candidate. But Mr Rao is faltering and is keen on a pre-poll tie up rather than a merger and would prefer to keep his options open.

While KCR’s family is fully entrenched in the Telangana politics, the Congress does not have credible State-level leaders. Union Minister Jaipal Reddy is only one face known nationally, but he has kept a low profile.

Seat-sharing for the Assembly and the lok Sabha may also create tensions. The Congress has put all its eggs in the TRS basket and is hoping that its tally will increase by about 15 lok Sabha seats in the new State, even as it is reconciled to losses in the Seemandhra region. If the TRS doesn’t merge with the Congress, these calculations may go wrong. The TRS is also looking to winning Telangana, or at least bag a major share of seats. Is the Congress willing to gift the new State to the TRSIJ Without a merger and with TRS taking the credit, the Congress may have to play second fiddle in the State.

If one looks at the overall impact, on the negative side, there are apprehensions that the new State could fall into the hands of the Maoists. Except the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad, the rest of the State needs development and it may take a long time to show results. KCR is not a visionary and not clear how far he can develop the new State.

There are water and power issues, which need to be resolved. Telangana region accounts for a huge chunk of natural resources of the united Andhra Pradesh. It accounts for 45 per cent of Andhra Pradesh’s forest cover. The region comprises 68 per cent of the catchment area of the Krishna River and 79 per cent of Godavari. Utilising these resources for the development of the region will be a big challenge. Most crucial task will be making water available to the drought-prone districts of the region. Even if the new State gets the share of water as per its demands, lack of irrigation facilities will become a big constraint in reaping the benefits.

The Seemandhra region has separate problems too. It has to build a new capital. Telangana should create conditions to protect the rightful claims of Seemandhra. There will be problems for those from the region who have invested in Hyderabad. Only a special status would resolve financial problem of the mother State. It may take time for the people of Seemandhra to reconcile to the bifurcation.

Only time will tell whether the creation of a separate State will benefit the people or the nascent State would slip into the hands of the ultra-left.