The battle between brothers Stalin and Alagiri could not have come at a worse time for a party vulnerable from all sides

A full-fledged political family drama is unfolding in Tamil Nadu. Sibling rivalry in the DMK’s first family has led to the expulsion of party patriarch M Karunanidhi’s elder son, Mr MK Alagiri, from the outfit. This has paved the way for the promotion of Mr Karunanidhi’s younger son, Mr MK Stalin. Family problems that plague the patriarch are increasing everyday. The drama reached a climax when Mr Alagiri complained about Mr Stalin saying the latter would die in three or four months. Mr Karunanidhi went public and even wrote to the Prime Minister for additional security for his younger son.

As long as the DMK was the UPA’s partner in New Delhi, Mr Karunanidhi managed to keep things under control by deputing Mr Alagiri as a Union Government Minister while Mr Stalin looked after party affairs at the State level. Mr Alagiri is now flexing his muscles for various reasons.

For long, the DMK’s southern commander, lording over Madurai, he has had a long standing rivalry with Mr Stalin, his counterpart in northern Tamil Nadu. Mr Alagiri has made it clear that he will not accept his younger brother as his leader. But the party has to have a fixed leadership chain, in view of the health and age of its present chief.

While the family battle is being fought in full public glare, its political fall-out may be serious for the party, which is neither a stake-holder at the Centre nor in the State. The DMK is in a difficult position politically as the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa is taking it head on. Faced with the 2G scam as well as cases against former DMK Minister A Raja, Mr Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi and his wife Dayalu Ammal, the DMK has been on the downslide after its humiliating performance in the 2011 Assembly election.

An ageing Karunanidhi has all but anointed Mr Stalin as his successor but his other two children want to have their share of the pie  as well. While Ms Kanimozhi has no political muscle, Mr Alagiri is a strongman in the southern part of the State and has his own followers. This is not the first time he has raised the banner of revolt. He has been a troublemaker all along but Mr Karunanidhi ensured that it did not go beyond a point.

For the past 15 years, Mr Stalin has been groomed for the post of DMK chief and his proximity to his father gives him enough clout in the party. Above all, the DMK is isolated now that it has pulled out of the UPA Government. The lok Sabha poll may perhaps be the last election fought under the ageing leader. In the 2004 and 2009 lok Sabha polls, and the 2007 Assembly poll, Mr Karunanidhi got his arithmetic right and managed to lead a winning coalition. But 2014 is different as the DMK is looking for elusive partners.

Ms Jayalalithaa will make this a talking point in the election. She is hoping to become the Prime Minister in case of a hung Parliament. She has the support of the left parties and is open to an alliance with either the UPA or the NDA but only after the election.

The Congress’s fortunes will also be affected by this quarrel in the DMK. The Congress has been wooing the DMK, which quit the UPA last year. The Congress lost Tamil Nadu in 1967 and since then has been riding piggyback on either the DMK or the AIADMK. In order to improve the DMK’s prospects, Mr Karunanidhi hopes to rope in the DMDK but Mr Alagiri attempted to throw a spanner in the works by opposing the alliance.

Until the DMK came around, dynasty politics was new to Tamil Nadu. Since 1967, power in the State has been changing hands between the DMK and the AIADMK. CN Annadurai, who founded the DMK, never named his successor; Mr Karunanidhi emerged as the party’s consensus choice. After MG Ramachandran fought with Mr Karunanidhi and formed the AIADMK, the two ruled alternately until 1987, when MGR died.

MGR, too, did not name his successor and after a brief interlude of his wife’s rule, the mantle came to Ms Jayalalithaa. Since then the throne has changed hands between Ms Jayalalithaa and Mr Karunanidhi. Perhaps, only time will tell if the DMK will split or survive in the post Karunanidhi-era.