The recent meetings  of the BJP leader with former LJP MPs Pashupati Paras and Prince Paswan, have intensified tensions within the Paswan family and the LJP

The recent meeting between former LJP MPs Pashupati Paras and Prince Paswan with Amit Shah has significantly elevated Chirag Paswan's political profile. Despite this boost, Chirag Paswan's statements during the last parliamentary session have left many observers puzzled, as he voiced positions that often contradicted those of the BJP. Issues such as the creamy layer in reservations, lateral appointments, and the Waqf Board Amendment Act 2024 saw Chirag taking stances that directly opposed the BJP’s views.

In response, Pashupati Paras and Prince Paswan met with BJP leader Amit Shah. During these discussions, Chirag Paswan reportedly expressed concerns about his party's struggles to his uncle, Pashupati Paras. Political insiders suggest that this interaction was part of a broader BJP strategy, with Amit Shah subtly indicating that neither Pashupati Paras nor Prince Paswan are beyond his influence. Additionally, MPs affiliated with the LJP family have begun issuing clarifications, while RJD MLA Mukesh Roshan has alleged that the BJP is targeting LJP R MPs. Furthermore, three MPs from Chirag Paswan's party are reportedly in communication with senior BJP leaders.

The BJP is known for its strategic patience, gradually consolidating its position. This approach saw Pashupati Paras receiving assurances during the Lok Sabha elections, and the Rajya Sabha seat was subsequently occupied by Upendra Kushwaha. Pashupati Paras is now banking on the upcoming 2025 assembly elections, understanding that neither the BJP nor the JDU are likely to allocate him separate seat shares. Consequently, both Pashupati Paras and Chirag Paswan may need to share assembly seats within the NDA’s seat-sharing framework, potentially alleviating BJP’s concerns.

However, the emergence of the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLP) poses a threat to the NDA, particularly as it fields candidates against NDA allies like Chirag Paswan's party.

This increases the likelihood of vote splitting, whether it results in a reduction or redistribution of votes. Within the RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan's son-in-law, Anil Kumar Sadhu, has been vocally critical of Chirag Paswan. Should Pashupati Paras align with the India Alliance, internal conflicts could escalate, with figures like Sunny Paswan from Congress already preparing to oppose Chirag.

Former Samastipur MP Prince Paswan could also emerge as a significant political challenger to Chirag Paswan. Despite these tensions, Pashupati Paras has publicly expressed a willingness to mend relations with his nephew, stating that familial bonds could overcome political differences. In media statements, he emphasized that “blood is blood,” indicating his desire to reconcile with Chirag Paswan.

Pashupati has communicated his intentions to the NDA leadership, aiming to thaw the strained relationship. Nevertheless, Chirag Paswan has accused Pashupati Paras of previously undermining the LJP by breaking away MPs and seizing party offices established by their father, Ram Vilas Paswan, thereby betraying the family. Despite these accusations, Pashupati Paras now appears to be seeking reconciliation.

This scenario may reflect the BJP's damage control efforts or a strategic policy shift aimed at balancing the factions within the LJP. The BJP aims to prevent the LJP from splitting into the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti and LJP (R) factions. During the Lok Sabha elections, Pashupati Paras was a target of BJP's strategies.  The Paras faction suffered losses during the Lok Sabha elections, losing both MPs and Union Minister positions. When they sought a seat allocation for Sunil Pandey in a by-election, the BJP appropriated their candidate.  LJP remains caught in a predicament of political uncertainty.

(The writer is a senior journalist; views are personal)