The first phase of polling takes place in Manipur today but all eyes are only on UP

Amid the din of UP elections, the Manipur poll has not been getting the attention it deserves. As per the rescheduled election, voting for 38 seats in Manipur’s first phase would take place today; the remaining 22 would vote on March 5. Most of the media and parties chose to ignore this Northeast State, which happens to be among the most volatile in the region. The new dispensation could decide the future of Manipur itself. Whether it would be at peace or boil would largely depend on how the various ethnic groups are accommodated in the new Vidhan Sabha. If one were to go by opinion surveys and expert opinions, the ruling BJP has an edge and Congress is likely to be a close second. Both had an almost similar vote share in 2017. The Congress has forged a six-party alliance, called Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA). The reason for BJP’s edge is that it got into election mode earlier and that could help it retain power. In the last election, it allied with the Naga People’s Party and Naga People’s Front but this time it has decided to go it alone.

Regional parties like the NPF and NPP are expected to do well in their pockets but these do not have a State-wide appeal. In smaller States having around 50 seats, the regional parties or independents always play a big role in Government formation. The key concerns of Manipur’s people are price rise, unemployment, the lack of education and health services but, like elsewhere, the parties have chosen to concentrate on negative campaigns. Security is a major issue in this border State with a long history of insurgency. The Kuki National Organisation (KNO), an umbrella organisation of 17 Kuki militant groups, under suspension of operation agreement with the Centre influencing the hills of Manipur supported the BJP. It was largely due to Amit Shah’s efforts, who promised to address their core concerns while keeping their aspirations in mind. The NPP had accused the BJP of using extremist groups in the Kuki-Zomi areas to prevent its candidate from filing nominations or campaigning. The Congress has been vocal against BJP’s “misrule” and criticised its silence on the controversial AFSPA which is very unpopular in the State. It would be quite a task for any party that comes to power to balance local aspirations with national interests.