The struggle for Independence continues in Catalonia, one of the richest and most industrialised parts of Spain. Though this movement for liberation from the mainland is an age-old issue, it started dominating the Catalan political scene only in 2010. However, on September 11, what the international community witnessed was something else, on the Catalonia’s National Day — la Diada De Catalunya — nearly a million people came out on the streets of Barcelona with pro-Independence “estelada” flags. It is crystal clear that Catalonians have a strong desire to separate from Madrid and to live on their own in the days to come. Interestingly, the National Assembly of Catalonia was the only one which provided even the green t-shirts to all the organisers for this gargantuan pro-Independence rally. This event, which has reached its sixth year of celebration, is sending alarm bells to the Government of Mariano Rajoy in Madrid as the Catalonia will conduct referendum on October 1 to decide her future. So far, the Rajoy Government has been trying to block the referendum, but the local government in Catalonia has vowed to go ahead and the people of the region are eagerly waiting for their chance to decide the fate of their beloved motherland. Ironically polls conducted in July showed that only 41.1 per cent of the locals said “yes” to Independence move and the rest 49.4 per cent opposed it. But the “no campaigners” were conspicuous by their absence on the National Day in central Barcelona when millions demonstrated their outrage against Madrid.

let us find out what has actually gone wrong with CataloniaIJ What has prompted the Catalonians to demand Independence from SpainIJ Will they be successfulIJ And, finally how will the Rajoy Government handle this conflict zoneIJ

History shows that Catalonians have their own distinct language and culture since the middle ages. And they always consider themselves a separate nation from the rest of Spain. The rise of Catalan identity started when Barcelona emerged as a distinct county way back in the 11th century. But then Catalonia was made a part of Spain by the 15th century. Though initially the Catalans were allowed to retain their own institutional set-up, later the Spanish state tightly integrated the entire region into the mainland. Gradually, the Catalans ushered into a new battle for retaining their distinctiveness and by the 19th century, this took even the shape of a separatist movement. It was marked by a strong consciousness among them to revive their identity through Catalan language. In fact, Catalonia played a strong role in the Regenerationist Movement in Spanish politics since the late 19th century. By 1898, Spain lost her last colonial possessions such as Cuba, Philippines and Puerto Rico. A wide “Rigeneracionismo” spread across Spain, wherein the Catalan regionalists tried to protect their own identity by fighting centralism what they saw as decadent Spain. When Spain became a republic in 1931, Catalonia was awarded a broad range of autonomy to maintain its identity. Unfortunately, when Spain came under Francisco Franco’s rightist rule, Catalonia once again lost everything. Franco revoked the Catalan autonomy, its nationalist aspirations were suppressed and restrictions were imposed on the use of the local language. But after the death of Franco, the pendulum swung back and Catalonia was allowed to have its extensive autonomy under a democratic Spain. Today, the region has its “Generalitat” i.e. own Parliament and the executive.

What exactly and immediately prompted the Independence move was no other than the historic ruling pronounced by the Constitutional Court of Spain in 2010 which specified limits on Catalans claim to nationhood. It was like adding fuel to the fire in the entire north-eastern region of Spain, and the nerve centre of the rising was the resource-rich Barcelona. What happened in Catalonia, apart from public outcry, was that the then President of the region, Jose Montilla, declared the Spanish court’s move as “an attack on the dignity of the Catalans”. later a regional Government strongly supported by two separatist parties held an informal and non-binding vote on Independence in 2014 across Catalonia. The verdict received through this vote was shocking not only for the Spanish Government, but for the entire members of the European Union. The 80 per cent of the people those who took part in this vote said “yes” to break away from Spain. It was more of an unofficial referendum for the Catalans.

Now the moot question is: will it be possible for the part of a western European country to part with its mainland without arming itself with a legally recognised referendumIJ And if not, what will be the future of CataloniaIJ What will be the next course of action for the Catalan nationalistsIJ The response gathered in 2014 referendum was an “overwhelming yes” for a new country on the border of France with a distinct language, parliament and tradition. But sadly, when the regional election took place in September 2015, the same nationalists failed to gain 50 per cent of the vote, even when the election was largely painted as yes/no vote on the fate of the region. The main coalition, which is known as “Together for Yes” could gather more than 50 per cent of the support, only by coming with a far-left pro-Independence party. What does all this implyIJ How will the nationalists move forwardIJ It is very clear. The Catalan nationalists say that even without the permission from the Central Government, they will proceed further. They say that the mandate is already been given by their people to create their independent state. Indeed, the support offered in the seats won by the nationalists in their respective constituencies has made a strong case for separation from Spain. The struggle for Independence in Catalonia will surely continue. The cause of Independence has gained momentum in recent years. The locals firmly blame Madrid for all their woes. They feel that their affluent region pay much more to feed the rest of Spain, but they receive very little in return. A deep sense of relative deprivation has emerged in the region and there could be, probably, no coming back from this state of affairs in future. In fact September 11 was a day of commemoration of the fall of Barcelona during the Spanish war of succession in 1714. Today, the local political parties have turned this day into a day for showing Catalan strength to the Spanish state. It is purely an ominous signal.

The current Spanish Government says a clear “no” to the referendum to be conducted on October 1 in Catalonia. The mainland Spaniards have refused to consider the demands of the Catalans. The Spanish Government says that Catalonia has no constitutional right to secede from Spain. But the locals in the region are all prepared to defy the State. What they say is that once they did it (referendum) on November 9, 2014 and they will show their strength to Madrid once again. Meanwhile the current Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said that this time the referendum will be entirely different as it is called for self-determination. Though the Catalan Parliament has already passed the referendum legislation, the Spanish Constitutional Court has suspended it. Now, the prosecutors employed by the Central Government are looking for all possible opportunities charge Puigdemont and the rest of the ministers of his Government with “disobedience and abuse of power”. However, Puigdemont says there is not enough power with the Spanish state to thwart the wishes of democratic Catalans. In reality, many Catalans feel that the Catalan Government’s unilateral rush to Independence has alienated a large number of their own people from the entire process.

It seems the successive Spanish Governments have been responding either late or just showing no strong interest in engaging the nationalist leadership of Catalonia. This could be potentially explosive for the future unity and integrity of the nation.

Is it something like “Castells” which refers to “building human towers” in Catalan languageIJ And one fine day, Spain and entire Europe will encounter such “little big” separatist movements which may finally force many of them to cede some of their integral parts to become independent identities. Many political observers say this day is not far. And this will be the result of decades and centuries of negligence and non-recognition of regional aspirations and demands of some of their very own people. The very “imagined community”, what Benedict Anderson conceptualised, may soon lose the umbilical cord that used to bind the fellow human beings together. Now the question is: will Catalonian’s be the first one to raise the “flag of freedom” at the heart of EuropeIJ If it happens, this will seriously impair the European unity further.

(The writer is an expert on international affairs)