The Opposition dreams of unity but has a decisive disadvantage as it is still searching for a challenger to Narendra Modi
Political parties in India have begun advance planning for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, it is early yet; the ruling National Democratic Alliance and the Opposition parties have been vying with each other in their preparations. They are making and remaking strategies according to the political climate. The stage is set for the next general elections in 2024.
The regional parties might threaten the Bharatiya Janata Party. While the ruling BJP plans a hat-trick for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Opposition is trying to unseat him. Both sides are strengthening with a 350-plus target in a Modi-versus-all scenario.
The Opposition dreams of unity but has a decisive disadvantage as it is still searching for a challenger to Modi. This lack of a prime ministerial candidate may hurt the Opposition—and the BJP will play up the question of Modi-versus-who.
With Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Nitish Kumar in Bihar, K Chandrasekhar Rao, MK Stalin in the south, and Arvind Kejriwal in the north, the BJP has formidable contests from different regions. There are more than 200 seats in the Opposition strongholds. Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat vote later this year, and next year six key states—Karnataka, Tripura, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh—go to the polls.
The BJP is yet to conquer the southern states (129 seats).
While Aam Aadmi Party chief Kejriwal takes on the PM on the corruption issue, others plan to corner the BJP on price rise and unemployment.
Secondly, right or wrong, the BJP is clear about its ideology, has a compelling narrative and poll preparedness, active cadres, and huge finances to fight the poll. Modi has the Government machinery and welfare schemes and works to show while the regional satraps are pretty strong in their states.
Modi has not only kept his flock together but, despite criticism, has also broken other parties and lured them into the BJP. More importantly, he has fulfilled the core agenda of the Sangh Parivar, like Ram mandir, removal of Article 370 in Kashmir, and triple talaq. He is likely to take up the issue of a uniform civil code soon. All these will keep his committed voters intact.
However, the recent Parliamentary Board revamp and JD(U) exit in Bihar last month triggered some unrest within the BJP. Still, leaders bank on the BJP's ability to make course corrections. The BJP also needs to get more allies.
The party has begun aggressive preparations for the general elections. It held a meeting recently in Delhi to draw a blueprint for strengthening its position in 144 Lok Sabha weak constituencies. The party also proposes to focus on the 70 Lok Sabha seats it never won.
On the other hand, the Opposition is not coherent and is a mixture of different ideologies. They all must adopt a give-and-take posture. While regional leaders have performed well in their respective states, they must work out a common minimum programme acceptable to all partners.
Despite their indifferent health, Deve Gowda, Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, and Sharad Pawar may collaborate to unite the former Janata constituents. With the Congress, they could consolidate across multi-party states such as Haryana, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh. That's nearly 200 Lok Sabha seats. Rahul Gandhi's current Bharat Jodo Yatra might help the Congress if it clicks.
The Samajwadi Party, a solid regional party in UP, focuses on strengthening its organisational structure. On the other hand, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has targeted 75 seats for the BJP, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats.
The BSP has launched a massive membership drive with a target of making 75,000 members from each assembly segment as the first step. BSP chief Mayawati has been facing defeat after defeat in the past decade but has a solid Dalit vote bank.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has warned his MLAs to perform or perish. He has also launched a door-to-door visit of his legislators. Telangana chief minister K.Chandrashekhar Rao also plans to launch a national party, seeking a national role.
It will be a thrilling ride until 2024 for all players.
Modi will have ten years of anti-incumbency behind him, but the BJP depends on his magic. But there are many questions, like will Modi perform a hat-trick? Will the Opposition unite? Will Rahul emerge as a successful challenger?
In politics, one week is said to be a long time. We have 18 months to go before the 2024 polls. The picture will become clear when we get near the elections. Till then, political pundits will whistle in the dark.
(The author is a senior journalist)
