There are reasons to believe that India might soon be heading towards an endemic phase unless another variant shows up

After the emergence of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 infections at the beginning of 2022, the decline in cases, thanks to the mild nature of Omicron, has got everyone asking - what’s next and when is the next blow going to arrive?

Ever since the pandemic began in 2020, humans have oscillated between deadly pandemic surges and retreats. If the good news is that cases are going down rapidly with many countries allowing their citizens to step outside with their masks on, there is, however, a caveat, that things might change in the coming days. Here are a few possible scenarios:

It is no rocket science that as long as the SARS-CoV-2 virus is around, it will continue to evolve and a straightforward answer to the question is, yes. In the coming days, we could see new variants emerging. However, there is no way to ascertain when a new variant will become dominant. It is also impossible to predict whether a new variant will spread rapidly just like the Alpha and Delta variants or will be mild in nature like Omicron. Researchers around the world have been tracking a host of related sub-variants that are jockeying for dominance and we have to adopt a wait-and-watch policy to know everything.

What was once believed to be a rumour for many has turned out to be real. A potential new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, by the name “Deltacron”, is around the corner. In fact, the new combination of the virus has already been identified in France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and the United States. Interestingly, scientists have found out that this new hybrid variant combines the spike protein from the Omicron variant and the ‘body’ of the Delta variant.

Can this hybrid virus have the potential to cause severe infection? It is indeed too early to make a presumption. The World Health Organization has also said testing remains critical to understand the very nature and severity of this hybrid virus.

India is currently witnessing a record dip in daily infections resulting from the Omicron variant. This has brought a huge relief to everyone, from the doctors to the common citizens. India battled a lethal second wave in 2021 caused by the Delta variant, and the third wave occurring from the Omicron variant had also resulted in a record number of cases as well.

However, many renowned virologists and scientists have claimed that India may not see a possible fourth wave, despite a warning issued by a group of experts at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, that the country could be in the grips of a fourth wave, starting from the month of June. With a record decline in cases and the recovery rate standing at close to 99 percent, there are reasons to believe that India might soon be heading towards an endemic phase unless another variant shows up.

That said, we must not be cavalier in our approach whatsoever. To ensure we are well on track to tackle another wave if there is one, the Three ‘Ts’ in the form of Testing, Tracking, and Treating will be extremely crucial in handling any future outbreaks.

It needs no detailed explanation to describe the roles played by vaccines to protect us from this deadly virus. Getting vaccinated against Covid-19 does not only lowers the chances of the rampant spread of this virus that causes disease but also helps in preventing serious illness and death to people. A similar argument can be made in cases of booster doses. The higher antibody levels from the booster doses seem to make the average person unlikely to get sick from the Coronavirus. For instance, the booster shots of mRNA coronavirus vaccines are said to increase antibodies by about 10 times.

A point in case is the equally historic role played by the Indian Government to ensure millions of citizens remain safe and get access to life-saving vaccines. For instance, the country, thanks to the assiduousness of the government, has registered more than 1.8 billion vaccine doses since its vaccination drive kicked off in January 2021. India being the second-most populated nation on earth, the Indian model of an immensely successful vaccination drive must serve as a perfect example for many developed and developing countries across the world. Similarly, the government has also rolled out booster or precaution doses for fully vaccinated healthcare workers, frontline workers, and senior citizens over the age group of 60+ years. After all, we must remember that vaccines do not save lives, but vaccination does.

(The writer is CEO, IHW Council. The views expressed are personal.)