As the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh progress to the third phase, attention shifts from the Jat belt to the influential Yadav land. This phase encompasses 10 crucial constituencies where the intricate Yadav-Muslim equation is set to play a dominant role.
The 10 Lok Sabha constituencies slated for polling in this phase include Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Budaun, Aonla and Bareilly, surpassing the eight Lok Sabha seats contested in each of the first two phases.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has historically maintained dominance in this belt as in 2014, the party won seven out of the 10 seats, further expanding its tally to eight in 2019. However, exceptions in their sweep include Sambhal and Mainpuri in 2019, and Mainpuri, Budaun, and Firozabad in 2014, all secured by the Samajwadi Party.
The third phase has dominance of Other Backward Classes, prominently including Yadavs, Lodhs and Kachhi/Shakya/Murao communities. Alongside, the impact of Muslim and Jat remains significant in select areas.
Constituencies like Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Budaun and Sambhal witness a significant Yadav presence, often aligning with Muslim constituents to form a formidable vote bank for SP. Muslim voters also wield substantial influence in Sambhal, Bareilly, Aonla and Budaun, as well as in Etah, Mainpuri, Fatehpur Sikri, Agra and Firozabad, with their proportions ranging from 5.7 per cent to 12.6 per cent.
In Etah, Lodh voters emerge as a decisive force, while Kachhi/Shakya/Murao communities hold sway in Etah, Budaun, and Mainpuri.
PROFILES OF CONSTITUENCIES
SAMBHAL: An old Yadav stronghold, Sambhal sent SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav to the Lok Sabha twice in 1998 and 1999 and another SP veteran Ram Gopal Yadav once in 2004. The Bahujan Samaj Party won the seat twice in 1996 and 2009. The lotus blossomed here only once in 2014 while the Congress last won this seat in 1984.
In 2019, veteran SP leader Shafiqur Rahaman Barq won this seat. After the demise of its sitting MP, the SP has fielded his grandson Zia-ur-Rahman Barq from Sambhal. The Bharatiya Janata Party has relied on its old candidate to reclaim the seat. The BSP has fielded a Muslim candidate, Shaulat Ali, making the contest triangular.
HATHRAS: A bastion for the BJP since 1991, Hathras, a seat reserved for Scheduled Castes, has seen uninterrupted victories of the party. The SP and BSP have struggled to make inroads here. In 2009, the Rashtriya Lok Dal won this seat as a pre-poll ally of the BJP. The Congress last won from here in 1971 while the SP and the BSP have never won from Hathras. In 2019, BJP’s Rajvir Singh Diler defeated Ramji Lal Suman of the SP. In 2024, the BJP has fielded Anoop Valmiki from Hathras while the SP and the BSP have given their tickets to Jasveer Valmiki and Hembabu Dhangar, respectively.
Diler died of a heart attack last week.
AGRA: The BJP has won this reserved seat five times since 1991, three times in a row since 2009. BJP’s SP Baghel, Union minister of state, won the Agra seat in 2019. The BJP has repeated the same candidate this time. The SP has chosen Suresh Chandra Kardan while the BSP has fielded Pooja Amrohi from Agra.
FATEHPUR SIKRI: The BJP won this seat twice in 2014 and 2019 and the BSP in 2009. In 2019, BJP’s Raj Kumar Chahar won this seat, defeating the Raj Babbar of the Congress. Chahar polled 64.23 per cent votes. The BJP has retained Raj Kumar Chahar and the Congress has fielded Ramnath Sikarwar. The BSP has relied on a Brahmin candidate Ram Niwas Sharma.
FIROZABAD: A part of Yadav land, this seat elected SP chief Akhilesh Yadav in 2009 and his cousin Akshay Yadav in 2014. Congress candidate Raj Babbar defeated SP’s Dimple Yadav in a bypoll in 2009. For 2024, the BJP has announced Vishwadeep Singh as its candidate while the SP has repeated Akshay Yadav.
MAINPURI: A Yadav citadel, Mainpuri sent SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav to the Lok Sabha at least five times. The SP has been winning this seat since 1996. The Congress last won from here in 1984. In 2019, Mulayam Singh Yadav won by defeating BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya. In 2024, BJP’s Jaiveer Singh is challenging Dimple Yadav of the SP. Dr Gulshan Dev Shakya is the BSP candidate from Mainpuri.
ETAH: The BJP won from here six times since 1989. In between, the SP won this seat twice. In 2009, Kalyan Singh won this seat as an independent supported by the SP. BJP’s Rajveer Singh, son of Kalyan Singh, won this seat in 2014 and 2019. The party has made him its candidate again in 2024. Davesh Shakya is SP candidate.
BUDAUN: The SP won the Budaun seat continuously from 1996 to 2014 but it lost to the BJP in 2019. This time, the BJP has replaced the sitting MP Sanghmitra Maurya with Durvijay Shakya. Aditya Yadav, son of Shivpal Singh Yadav, is the SP candidate from Budaun.
AONLA: The BJP has won this seat six times since 1989 and three times since 2009. The SP has won this seat twice. The Congress won from here last in 1984. Dharmandra Kashyap (BJP), Neeraj Maurya (SP) and Abid Ali (BSP) are the main contestants.
BAREILLY: In Bareilly, the BJP has replaced its eight-time MP Santosh Gangwar, who continuously won from 1989 till 2019, barring in 2009 when Praveen Aron of the Congress defeated him by a narrow margin. Chhatrapal Singh Gangwar is the BJP candidate who is pitted against Praveen Aron.
